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| 001 | ocn939550826 | ||
| 003 | OCoLC | ||
| 005 | 20200827112650.0 | ||
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| 008 | 160217t20162016cauad ob 000 0 eng d | ||
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| 043 | _an-us--- | ||
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_aUA23.3 _b.L46 2016eb online |
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_a353.6 _223 |
| 049 | _aMAIN | ||
| 100 | 1 |
_aLempert, Robert J., _eauthor. _0http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n88158770 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 |
_aDefense Resource Planning Under Uncertainty : _ban Application of Robust Decision Making to Munitions Mix Planning / _cRobert J. Lempert, Drake Warren, Ryan Henry, Robert W. Button, Jonathan Klenk, Kate Giglio. |
| 246 | 3 | _aApplication of Robust Decision Making to Munitions Mix Planning | |
| 264 | 1 |
_aSanta Monica, Calif. : _bRAND, _c[2016] |
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| 264 | 4 | _c�2016 | |
| 300 |
_a1 online resource (xxii, 86 pages) : _bcolor illustrations, color charts |
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| 336 |
_atext _btxt _2rdacontent |
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| 337 |
_acomputer _bc _2rdamedia |
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| 338 |
_aonline resource _bcr _2rdacarrier |
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| 490 | 1 |
_aResearch report ; _vRR-1112-OSD |
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| 504 | _aIncludes bibliographical references (pages 85-86). | ||
| 505 | 0 | 0 |
_gCh. 1: _tIntroduction -- _gch. 2: _tThe RDM approach to munitions mix planning -- _gch. 3: _tRDM munitions mix analysis -- _gch. 4: _tConclusions -- _gAppendix A. _tThe weapons on target model -- _gAppendix B. _tExperimental design -- _gAppendix C. _tData. |
| 505 | 0 | 0 |
_tPreface -- _tFigures -- _tTables -- _tSummary -- _tAcknowledgments -- _tAbbreviations -- _tCHAPTER ONE: _tIntroduction: _gPlanning with Predictive Failure -- _gMunitions Mix Challenge -- _gOrganization of This Report -- _tCHAPTER TWO: _tThe RDM Approach to Munitions Mix Planning: _gComparison of RDM and Traditional Analysis -- _gRDM Enables Decision Makers to Discover Robust Strategies Through Iteration -- _gXLRM Factors Shape the Design of the Experiment -- _tCHAPTER THREE: _tRDM Munitions Mix Analysis: _gInitial Analysis of a Broad Range of Munitions Mix Strategies -- _gAnalysis of Potentially More Robust Munitions Mix Strategies -- _gStress-Testing of Strategies over Many Futures -- _gScenarios That Illuminate the Vulnerabilities of Strategies -- _gPerformance of Big+Deter-Mixed Strategy in the Moderate Scenario -- _gPerformance of the Big+Deter-Mixed Strategy in the Extreme Scenario -- _gFuture Focus on Purchase Rules in Addition to Portfolio Goals -- _tCHAPTER FOUR: _tConclusions: _gA Robust Munitions Mix Strategy -- _gThe Future of RDM in Defense Planning -- _tAPPENDIXES -- _tReferences. |
| 520 | _a"Today's defense resource planners face unprecedented uncertainty. The planning processes currently used to determine what forces and capabilities will be needed to address future threats to our national security and interests may be vulnerable to predictive failure. To manage these risks, a new approach to planning is needed to identify strategies that perform well over a wide range of threat and funding futures and thus are better able to manage surprise. This report describes how robust decision making (RDM) may help address this need. RDM, a quantitative decision support methodology for informing decisions under conditions of deep uncertainty and complexity, has been applied to many policy areas in the last decade. This document provides a proof of concept application of RDM to defense planning, focusing on the air-launched munitions mix challenge. The study embeds a fast-running "weapons on targets" allocation model within a "scenario generator" that explores many thousands of plausible, future twenty-year series of military campaigns. The RDM analysis uses these simulation models to stress-test alternative munitions mix strategies against many plausible futures. The analysis then identifies a robust munitions mix strategy, which interestingly depends not only on the desired portfolio of alternative weapons types but also on the rules used to replenish depleted weapons stocks after each campaign. The study also suggests how RDM might best be integrated into current Department of Defense planning processes and some of the challenges that might be involved"--Publisher's description. | ||
| 588 | 0 | _aOnline resource; title from PDF title page (RAND, viewed February 16, 2016). | |
| 590 |
_aeBooks on EBSCOhost _bEBSCO eBook Subscription Academic Collection - Worldwide |
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| 610 | 1 | 0 |
_aUnited States. _bDepartment of Defense _xAppropriations and expenditures. |
| 610 | 1 | 7 |
_aUnited States. _bDepartment of Defense. _2fast _0(OCoLC)fst01852447 |
| 651 | 0 |
_aUnited States _xArmed Forces _xProcurement. _0http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85139879 |
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| 651 | 0 |
_aUnited States _xArmed Forces _xWeapons systems. _0http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85139905 |
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| 651 | 0 |
_aUnited States _xArmed Forces _xEquipment. _0http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85139822 |
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| 651 | 0 |
_aUnited States _xArmed Forces _xOrdnance and ordnance stores. _0http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85139866 |
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| 650 | 0 |
_aStrategy. _0http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85128514 |
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| 650 | 0 |
_aDecision making. _0http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85036199 |
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| 650 | 7 |
_aTECHNOLOGY & ENGINEERING _xMilitary Science. _2bisacsh |
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| 650 | 7 |
_aArmed Forces _xEquipment and supplies. _2fast _0(OCoLC)fst01351770 |
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| 650 | 7 |
_aArmed Forces _xOrdnance and ordnance stores. _2fast _0(OCoLC)fst01351845 |
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| 650 | 7 |
_aArmed Forces _xProcurement. _2fast _0(OCoLC)fst00814624 |
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| 650 | 7 |
_aArmed Forces _xWeapons systems. _2fast _0(OCoLC)fst01351920 |
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| 650 | 7 |
_aDecision making. _2fast _0(OCoLC)fst00889035 |
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| 650 | 7 |
_aExpenditures, Public. _2fast _0(OCoLC)fst00918345 |
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| 650 | 7 |
_aStrategy. _2fast _0(OCoLC)fst01134406 |
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| 651 | 7 |
_aUnited States. _2fast _0(OCoLC)fst01204155 |
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| 655 | 4 | _aElectronic books. | |
| 710 | 2 |
_aRand Corporation, _epublisher. _0http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n78083407 |
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| 776 | 0 | 8 |
_iPrint version: _nDruck-Ausgabe _aDefense resource planning under uncertainty . _tAn application of robust decision making to munitions mix planning |
| 830 | 0 |
_aResearch report (Rand Corporation) ; _vRR-1112-OSD. _0http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/no2013072664 |
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